Necropolis is the 2nd the worst retention League of all time: GGG can't understand their limits

I'm going to have to assume you didn't understand what I wrote so I'll move on. its really annoying that you just re-posted the same thing that you've posted already in this thread as well as elsewere.

It's interesting also that I never specified or quoted you but you chose to adopt insult.

Edit: you've edited some more actual argument into your last post so I will as well:

the reason they argue that this league is 2nd worst is that they're doing a relative difference comparison that factors in the peak number of players. They are also including relatively up to date concurrency data.

The reason why you argue that its "top 4" is because you cherry pick the first week and are actively ignoring the current data. Also you're choosing to do an absolute comparison which because most past leagues of POE just naturally had less players over many years of the games growth means you get to say things like "top 5 in the first week"

And finally for your self administered coup de grace:

In the graph with the yellow "expected 2nd worst" vector if you would kindly follow the blue Necropolis graph line FROM WEEK ONE and trace it all the way down to day 25-26 could you please describe to the forum what you see mere pixels from your yellow plot line?

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alhazred70 escreveu:

I'm going to have to assume you didn't understand what I wrote so I'll move on. its really annoying that you just re-posted the same thing that you've posted already in this thread as well as elsewere. You're just clustering up the thread.

Post title: Necropolis is the 2nd the worst retention League of all time: GGG can't understand their limits" (SIC).

It's literally impossible to get to that conclusion / title. Literally. You would have to fake data in order to get to that. Here you go (faked data):



Follow the actual necropolis line with 8 or 35 and it will never be "the 2nd worst retention league of all time" (SIC). That's neither cherry picking nor "picking a absolute difference" nor "picking a relative difference comparison", nor "bias", nor "SELF SERVING".

Me saying that it's absurd how this long rooted misconception is doing a lot of harm and GGG needs to bring actual experts to dispel this myth... Sigh...

You kinda hinted at me on point No. 1 and then fail to come to a proper conclusion. The only thing that could resemble a conclusion is sandwiched between two statements. Which makes a lot of people that care about grammar grimace.

You DID add something new to the conversation which is this:



Finally, your last statement:



That's GREAT! but at the same time you cannot deny it's annoying as hell to have people that can't even read a graph much less understand basic economic principles spread misinformation through all social media. Then you get zombies / parrots repeating that misinformation over and over and over. At some point, someone says: "STOP, this is non-sense" which is what I've done so far here and in my post.

So yes, I understood your reply completely. It was a nice try to appear centrist. Next time, you should reserve point No. 1 and No. 2 to clearly state the two sides and what made them extreme. Then, you draw your OWN centrist conclusion. I would advise against it in this case because the two sides are: information vs. misinformation. Unless, you think I've acted with malice and misinformed people and did harm with that. If that's the case, please by all means let me know so that I can fix the error or clarify the misunderstanding.


Bartender: I'd like more cappuccino on my cappuccino.

oh boy more spamming of the same graphs. This begins to have the distinct feel of someone who thinks that insistently repeating the same thing = being correct.

Its extremely ironic that you talk about being able to read graphs when you just posted (and re-posted) one that pretty nearly proves the opposing argument correct. Your yellow plot line and the Necropolis plot line nearly meet on day 25-26

I just can't... talk about hoisting on your own petard.

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alhazred70 escreveu:

1. The reason they argue that this league is 2nd worst is that they're doing a relative difference comparison that factors in the peak number of players. They are also including relatively up to date concurrency data.

2. The reason why you argue that its "top 4" is because you cherry pick the first week and are actively ignoring the current data. Also you're choosing to do an absolute comparison which because most past leagues of POE just naturally had less players over many years of the games growth means you get to say things like "top 5 in the first week"

1. That's YOUR analysis, not their analysis. It's all much, much, much simpler than that: You can see it here (https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/3514952/page/5). Watch them patch each other on the back with an authority figure argument / fallacy. Why? Because it's been perpetuated for ages by people who can't read a graph.

2. That's not cherry picking. Follow the line across the board and you will see it's NOT the "2nd worst retention league of all time". Use your own eyes: https://poedb.tw/us/League#ConcurrentPlayers

Their argument is a deeply rooted misconception that falsely predicates that "player retention going down must mean league = bad". As I've stated a million times... it's a made up conclusion because there are no surveys asking people WHY they stopped playing.

... and if their argument is that "player retention going down must mean league = bad" where will you find the most extreme / clear example? By the end of the first week. New player installs, plays, reaches the shore and realizes NAH I don't like this and uninstalls. A more seasoned player ignores the mechanic until maps (unless exploitable earlier on) and then decides if they are going to stay or not. So it's not cherry picking, it's within the time-frame you would expect the most departures.



Again, not cherry picking. That's attacking their argument at their strongest possible point.

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alhazred70 escreveu:

Spoiler

oh boy more spamming of the same graphs. This begins to have the distinct feel of someone who thinks that insistently repeating the same thing = being correct.

Its extremely ironic that you talk about being able to read graphs when you just posted (and re-posted) one that pretty nearly proves the opposing argument correct. Your yellow plot line and the Necropolis plot line nearly meet on day 25-26

I just can't... talk about hoisting on your own petard.

Yeah, taking away all the "noise" and ignoring the straight line that goes from day 7 to day 51. Sure, it nearly met on day 25-26.

By the way the fake and imaginary neon-green (https://www.color-hex.com/color/abe41b) line I made to illustrate how bad the topic and misinformation are is quite literally an alternate color for Necropolis. In short, blue and neon-green lines are the same.

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Edit: Just to be clear... blue and neon-green lines are the same. They would never intersect because they can't exist at the same time. It's one or the other. The fake green line is there to highlight the error in the topic / logic / post.

[edit you acknowledged this while I was typing so I'll remove it]

I've told you why the opposing argument is bad. and Pointed out the statistical cooking method used to derive it.

I've stated that popularity has many confounding factors and doesn't necessarily make a qualitative statement about any given league. You SEEM to be saying the same thing. Which I agree with for my own stated reasons.

BUT you're using popularity of the first week to argue with them? Why? If it doesn't prove a league is bad it also doesn't prove a league is good.

In my view retention metrics and peak concurrency are completely separate metrics and combining them together with absolute or relative delta is cooking the books to a greater or lesser degree.

The only retention metric I would except at a valid analysis would be one that ignores absolute numbers or peak entirely and only compares how shallow or steep the curves are. Neither of you are doing that.

Peak and absolute concurrency and the rate of fall off from it, might arguably be better used to prove how much or little was going on in the gaming world, what time of year it is, or how superficially exciting the league trailer looks, or what kind of state the overall game is currently in a hell of a lot better than any statement it makes about how good the league mechanic itself is.

Do you want to know the reason for the sudden drop in players? In past leagues ARPG was not in the sights of most players, today because of D4 and Last Epoch many players are starting to visualize the game and therefore POE is more difficult so many casuals stop playing.

So comparing past leagues where the POE had a peak of 100k with the last leagues where we hit 300k is, to say the least, an unfair attitude.
Another reason, the last league was a drop festival, completely deviating from what is the core of POE, it's natural that we have a community wanting to live in the past and finding everything more difficult.

The game is balancing itself out so that we have a more accessible and easy-to-farm currency, bringing chaos as a much more valuable item. I welcome the current remodeling of the market. The way the market is now, with a simple Tujen farm I can buy many items that I would never be able to before

Now about the reformulation of the scarabs, I believe that people are crying too much since it is normal for lower efficiency in farms as it will take time for the game to assimilate all the possibilities that the new models bring.
People like to complain and most of the time simply for the reason of having to rethink from the ground up how something should be done.

This thread might just be... I don't even know what this is, really, but it's sad to look at for more reasons than I care to explain.

It's actually all really simple. If you disagree with the premise of this thread, because you are able to pull some statistics that you would hope contradict said premise, good for you. Unfortunately, you still haven't been able to explain how this -- contrary to supposedly popular belief -- actually and "literally good" league has such a problem with player retention.

And let's get this straight: Nobody claimed that the league wasn't doing "anything good" for one reason another. What's being brought forth here is the argument that player retention is looking poorly - not because of all the good stuff, but in spite thereof. That simple fact of the matter should be way more concerning to you than trying to "win" an argument on the internet.

As an aside, the vast, vast majority of programmers happen to be "fluent" in statistics. With hundreds of people in GGG's HQ, chances are they happen to have several dozen in their employ, who just might be educated enough to get a good chuckle out of this here thread.

"tis but a scratch"

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Sure_K4y escreveu:

This thread might just be... I don't even know what this is, really, but it's sad to look at for more reasons than I care to explain.

It's actually all really simple. If you disagree with the premise of this thread, because you are able to pull some statistics that you would hope contradict said premise, good for you. Unfortunately, you still haven't been able to explain how this -- contrary to supposedly popular belief -- actually and "literally good" league has such a problem with player retention.

And let's get this straight: Nobody claimed that the league wasn't doing "anything good" for one reason another. What's being brought forth here is the argument that player retention is looking poorly - not because of all the good stuff, but in spite thereof. That simple fact of the matter should be way more concerning to you than trying to "win" an argument on the internet.

As an aside, the vast, vast majority of programmers happen to be "fluent" in statistics. With hundreds of people in GGG's HQ, chances are they happen to have several dozen in their employ, who just might be educated enough to get a good chuckle out of this here thread.

I don't even think its concerning. Its literally a cycle they've talked about (clear speed leagues versus crafting leagues) and publicly taken authorship for. I track this all the way back to Breach league when the cycle kind of started in fits and spurts.

again I'm sure GGG sees some decline in pack sales when a league is less popular but I think they understand that without the cycle they would be burning out all the clear speeders so its better in the long term to cycle.

Meanwhile the difference between a good league at 48k and a bad league at 37k once again: is pretty much purely seen in emotional arguments seeking validation for what people dislike or enjoy.

NO ONE can tell the difference between 37k concurrent and 51k concurrent... At least not in any meaningful non statistical or spread sheet-y economic based context.

So to put this in practical terms:

If you're enjoying the mechanic of "a bad league" with 37,000 instead of 51,000 players playing at any moment (thats hundreds of thousands of players in both cases who are logging in) you're doing it right. And if not well hopefully next league is a banger for you just know that 14,000 player delta wont be why its a banger for you.