Necropolis is the 2nd the worst retention League of all time: GGG can't understand their limits

oh boy more spamming of the same graphs. This begins to have the distinct feel of someone who thinks that insistently repeating the same thing = being correct.

Its extremely ironic that you talk about being able to read graphs when you just posted (and re-posted) one that pretty nearly proves the opposing argument correct. Your yellow plot line and the Necropolis plot line nearly meet on day 25-26

I just can't... talk about hoisting on your own petard.

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alhazred70 escreveu:

1. The reason they argue that this league is 2nd worst is that they're doing a relative difference comparison that factors in the peak number of players. They are also including relatively up to date concurrency data.

2. The reason why you argue that its "top 4" is because you cherry pick the first week and are actively ignoring the current data. Also you're choosing to do an absolute comparison which because most past leagues of POE just naturally had less players over many years of the games growth means you get to say things like "top 5 in the first week"

1. That's YOUR analysis, not their analysis. It's all much, much, much simpler than that: You can see it here (https://www.pathofexile.com/forum/view-thread/3514952/page/5). Watch them patch each other on the back with an authority figure argument / fallacy. Why? Because it's been perpetuated for ages by people who can't read a graph.

2. That's not cherry picking. Follow the line across the board and you will see it's NOT the "2nd worst retention league of all time". Use your own eyes: https://poedb.tw/us/League#ConcurrentPlayers

Their argument is a deeply rooted misconception that falsely predicates that "player retention going down must mean league = bad". As I've stated a million times... it's a made up conclusion because there are no surveys asking people WHY they stopped playing.

... and if their argument is that "player retention going down must mean league = bad" where will you find the most extreme / clear example? By the end of the first week. New player installs, plays, reaches the shore and realizes NAH I don't like this and uninstalls. A more seasoned player ignores the mechanic until maps (unless exploitable earlier on) and then decides if they are going to stay or not. So it's not cherry picking, it's within the time-frame you would expect the most departures.



Again, not cherry picking. That's attacking their argument at their strongest possible point.

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alhazred70 escreveu:

Spoiler

oh boy more spamming of the same graphs. This begins to have the distinct feel of someone who thinks that insistently repeating the same thing = being correct.

Its extremely ironic that you talk about being able to read graphs when you just posted (and re-posted) one that pretty nearly proves the opposing argument correct. Your yellow plot line and the Necropolis plot line nearly meet on day 25-26

I just can't... talk about hoisting on your own petard.

Yeah, taking away all the "noise" and ignoring the straight line that goes from day 7 to day 51. Sure, it nearly met on day 25-26.

By the way the fake and imaginary neon-green (https://www.color-hex.com/color/abe41b) line I made to illustrate how bad the topic and misinformation are is quite literally an alternate color for Necropolis. In short, blue and neon-green lines are the same.

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Edit: Just to be clear... blue and neon-green lines are the same. They would never intersect because they can't exist at the same time. It's one or the other. The fake green line is there to highlight the error in the topic / logic / post.

[edit you acknowledged this while I was typing so I'll remove it]

I've told you why the opposing argument is bad. and Pointed out the statistical cooking method used to derive it.

I've stated that popularity has many confounding factors and doesn't necessarily make a qualitative statement about any given league. You SEEM to be saying the same thing. Which I agree with for my own stated reasons.

BUT you're using popularity of the first week to argue with them? Why? If it doesn't prove a league is bad it also doesn't prove a league is good.

In my view retention metrics and peak concurrency are completely separate metrics and combining them together with absolute or relative delta is cooking the books to a greater or lesser degree.

The only retention metric I would except at a valid analysis would be one that ignores absolute numbers or peak entirely and only compares how shallow or steep the curves are. Neither of you are doing that.

Peak and absolute concurrency and the rate of fall off from it, might arguably be better used to prove how much or little was going on in the gaming world, what time of year it is, or how superficially exciting the league trailer looks, or what kind of state the overall game is currently in a hell of a lot better than any statement it makes about how good the league mechanic itself is.

Do you want to know the reason for the sudden drop in players? In past leagues ARPG was not in the sights of most players, today because of D4 and Last Epoch many players are starting to visualize the game and therefore POE is more difficult so many casuals stop playing.

So comparing past leagues where the POE had a peak of 100k with the last leagues where we hit 300k is, to say the least, an unfair attitude.
Another reason, the last league was a drop festival, completely deviating from what is the core of POE, it's natural that we have a community wanting to live in the past and finding everything more difficult.

The game is balancing itself out so that we have a more accessible and easy-to-farm currency, bringing chaos as a much more valuable item. I welcome the current remodeling of the market. The way the market is now, with a simple Tujen farm I can buy many items that I would never be able to before

Now about the reformulation of the scarabs, I believe that people are crying too much since it is normal for lower efficiency in farms as it will take time for the game to assimilate all the possibilities that the new models bring.
People like to complain and most of the time simply for the reason of having to rethink from the ground up how something should be done.

This thread might just be... I don't even know what this is, really, but it's sad to look at for more reasons than I care to explain.

It's actually all really simple. If you disagree with the premise of this thread, because you are able to pull some statistics that you would hope contradict said premise, good for you. Unfortunately, you still haven't been able to explain how this -- contrary to supposedly popular belief -- actually and "literally good" league has such a problem with player retention.

And let's get this straight: Nobody claimed that the league wasn't doing "anything good" for one reason another. What's being brought forth here is the argument that player retention is looking poorly - not because of all the good stuff, but in spite thereof. That simple fact of the matter should be way more concerning to you than trying to "win" an argument on the internet.

As an aside, the vast, vast majority of programmers happen to be "fluent" in statistics. With hundreds of people in GGG's HQ, chances are they happen to have several dozen in their employ, who just might be educated enough to get a good chuckle out of this here thread.

"tis but a scratch"

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Sure_K4y escreveu:

This thread might just be... I don't even know what this is, really, but it's sad to look at for more reasons than I care to explain.

It's actually all really simple. If you disagree with the premise of this thread, because you are able to pull some statistics that you would hope contradict said premise, good for you. Unfortunately, you still haven't been able to explain how this -- contrary to supposedly popular belief -- actually and "literally good" league has such a problem with player retention.

And let's get this straight: Nobody claimed that the league wasn't doing "anything good" for one reason another. What's being brought forth here is the argument that player retention is looking poorly - not because of all the good stuff, but in spite thereof. That simple fact of the matter should be way more concerning to you than trying to "win" an argument on the internet.

As an aside, the vast, vast majority of programmers happen to be "fluent" in statistics. With hundreds of people in GGG's HQ, chances are they happen to have several dozen in their employ, who just might be educated enough to get a good chuckle out of this here thread.

I don't even think its concerning. Its literally a cycle they've talked about (clear speed leagues versus crafting leagues) and publicly taken authorship for. I track this all the way back to Breach league when the cycle kind of started in fits and spurts.

again I'm sure GGG sees some decline in pack sales when a league is less popular but I think they understand that without the cycle they would be burning out all the clear speeders so its better in the long term to cycle.

Meanwhile the difference between a good league at 48k and a bad league at 37k once again: is pretty much purely seen in emotional arguments seeking validation for what people dislike or enjoy.

NO ONE can tell the difference between 37k concurrent and 51k concurrent... At least not in any meaningful non statistical or spread sheet-y economic based context.

So to put this in practical terms:

If you're enjoying the mechanic of "a bad league" with 37,000 instead of 51,000 players playing at any moment (thats hundreds of thousands of players in both cases who are logging in) you're doing it right. And if not well hopefully next league is a banger for you just know that 14,000 player delta wont be why its a banger for you.

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BlackMarshes212 escreveu:

"tis but a scratch"

No point in having a conversation about subjective and fluid words like "manipulation","doesn't necessarily", "can distort" etc.
It's just a waste of time.

But if you can't understand that popularity matters for the health of the game, then you simply have no argument for a forum.

This league was great for my playstyle - kill all Uber bosses, get a mirror, finish all content in 1 week and quit. Would PoE even exist if everyone played like that? No.

I can understand that what's fun for me, might not be fun for everyone else. You though, can't.

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Sure_K4y escreveu:

1. It's actually all really simple. If you disagree with the premise of this thread, because you are able to pull some statistics that you would hope contradict said premise, good for you.

2. Unfortunately, you still haven't been able to explain how this -- contrary to supposedly popular belief -- actually and "literally good" league has such a problem with player retention.

3. And let's get this straight: Nobody claimed that the league wasn't doing "anything good" for one reason another. What's being brought forth here is the argument that player retention is looking poorly - not because of all the good stuff, but in spite thereof.

4. As an aside, the vast, vast majority of programmers happen to be "fluent" in statistics. With hundreds of people in GGG's HQ, chances are they happen to have several dozen in their employ, who just might be educated enough to get a good chuckle out of this here thread.

Thank you for your reply. It's the first insightful reply I've seen yet. Thoughtful, to the point.

1. You don't need to pull anything, it's all there visible for anyone that wants to look. You actually have to fake data to make the premise (title) true.

2. This "retention problem" might not be a problem at all. We speak as IF games can hold the entirety of the player-pop for 91 days. Frankly, that's delusional.

The top players reach maps within hours, the good players within the first dozen hours, the okay players within the day... so on and so forth. By the first week some people have had multiple characters to their league.

What about burn-out? I've sure as hell burnt out on PoE before.

What about not liking the mechanic? Some players if they don't see something that's actually new they will quit. Rehashed content is a big turn off for some players.

Honestly, this list of factors is almost endless. Therefore, it is a popular misconception that you can retain players with a better league. The reasons why a player leaves the game are too many. A survey would be the best tool to ACTUALLY know why they left, but it would be annoying as hell to fill up.

3. True the argument is not that the league isn't doing something good for the player. It's much more sinister. It's saying "people are leaving because this league is trash, you are dumb to stay". It's like that annoying kid that always puts people down just to control their energy. That's harmful to player retention. You see? by creating misinformation you literally generate the problem of losing players. It DEMOTIVATES.

4. Sure, most programmers can read a chart... but, what about human behavior training? After all, that's the issue. "Player retention is going down, league = bad". That's literally a behavior that's best analyzed by someone with formal training and experience. I say a doctor because quite frankly the vast majority of countries do their best to train these professionals the best they are able to. Even a mediocre m.d, can easily dispel this deeply rooted misconception. So... if any GGG employee thinks I'm taking a shot AT them, rest assured. It's not the case. I'm merely pointing out ideal and easy third party picks.

Again... great reply and very insightful. Tyvm!

Cheers!